2:05 — The Move That Can't be Modeled

If you were to investigate yesterday’s tape, you could ask a technical analyst: Why did the market rally precisely at 2:05?

And you’ll find out very quickly: there is no answer.

There are theories. A block order sitting there waiting to buy, perhaps. But if you look closely, you’ll see something stranger:

• At that very moment, there were more sellers than buyers.

• And yet, price was going up.

So the block theory collapses. The supply-demand explanation collapses.

What did the technicians do? They chased.

What did the algos do? They chased.

What did the institutions do? They chased.

Everyone chased.

For me, this was just a move authored over chicken wings. For everyone else, it was billions in stakes — with no explanation for causality.

That’s the difference between prediction and authorship: one guesses, the other causes.