A Risk-On Pivot Tonight
On Monday it was strong, and I think maybe institutions wanted to see it higher, but that got washed out today because the bombs started hitting hard.
So I’m going to treat tonight and tomorrow like they treated Monday—strong, risk-on mindset.
This is the kind of thinking you need to have to be ahead of everyone else.
Example: last night and today they looked that scope and breath of the attacks and were risk off, but we knew what was coming Sunday and Monday.
And that is why we are ahead of the game right now while others are just catching up.
Bottom line: Unless Iran secures aid (unlikely given muted proxies), today’s indicators—UAE reopenings, Trump’s capability assessments, regional posturing, and Iranian depleted offensive capacity point to ‘short-term cooling’.
Tonight’s the watch: quieter skies in the region could unleash that risk-on wave, turning defense into opportunity. Let’s see how the night plays out.
UAE Reopening:
First, the UAE’s bold move to reopen its stock exchanges tomorrow (Wednesday, March 4) after a two-day halt speaks volumes. Abu Dhabi’s ADX, Dubai’s DFM, and Nasdaq Dubai are all set to resume trading, per the UAE Capital Markets Authority and Dubai Financial Services Authority statements today.
This signals confidence that the worst of the barrage may be over, especially as UAE defenses intercepted the bulk of Iran’s projectiles (over 1,000 since Saturday, with high efficacy rates reported).
Intel and Recon on Iran:
Tying into that, President Trump’s latest statements underscore Iran’s waning offensive punch. In today’s briefings and updates, he emphasized that U.S. strikes have “knocked out” most of Iran’s military installations, targeting leadership, missile sites, and production lines to preempt threats.
Iran’s ballistic stockpiles “thinning” significantly—analysts note reductions from hundreds to tens per salvo due to wrecked launchers and facilities. Without fresh aid (none reported from proxies like Hezbollah/Houthis, who remain restrained, or sidelined allies like Russia/China), Tehran’s sustainment looks exhausted short-term.
Regional Defense and Offense:
Regional peers are also tipping the scales toward de-escalation or containment. Saudi Arabia condemned the aggression and is considering retaliation after hits on its embassy/oil sites; the UAE reserves its “full right to respond”; Qatar and Oman report intercepts without further escalation. This Gulf stance—absorbing blows but not fully joining—could pressure Iran to pause, especially with no major proxy mobilizations.
Exemplifying this thesis: markets are already sniffing out risk-on. The rebound came partly from Trump’s announcement of U.S. Navy escorts for Gulf tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed, easing worst-case oil disruption fears (Brent up 9% but off highs). Bitcoin’s holding around 69k after dipping to 63k—if salvo tempo slows overnight, as depleted stocks suggest, we could see green by tomorrow’s open.