Alpha Decays — Recurrence Compounds
But what if alpha isn’t the goal at all?
What if the real game is recurrence — the ability to generate consequence on demand?
Alpha is the flash.
It’s the moment you see something before others do, act on it, and extract value.
It’s a probabilistic edge, born from discovery.
And because it’s visible, it dies.
Alpha decays the instant it’s recognized.
Once your competitors see it, they replicate it, compress it, and arbitrage it out of existence.
Alpha is event-based — fragile, fleeting, and always hunted.
Alpha = excess return through discovery.
Recurrence — The Structural Advantage
Recurrence is different.
It’s not about discovering edge — it’s about replicating consequence.
Recurrence isn’t an event; it’s a system.
It’s what happens when your timing, presence, and design become so consistent that markets begin to orbit around your behavior.
You’re no longer predicting.
You’re authoring.
Recurrence = consistent return through design.
Alpha is reactive; recurrence is architectural.
It’s the difference between finding energy and becoming a power source.
Every trader starts by chasing alpha — trying to find the new thing.
But those who transcend probability reach recurrence - only one person.
They stop finding edges.
They become them.
Recurrence isn’t about advantage — it’s about authorship of tempo.
You don’t need to win more often; you need to exist more precisely.
That’s why alpha decays — but recurrence compounds.
Presence is the bridge between them.