Care Package +

Did you wait in line or place an order due to the artificially created supply-demand for iPhones? After that, you’re then hard-sold on purchasing AppleCare+.

Whisper numbers indicate that AppleCare+ is a massive positive float for Apple, acting as a highly profitable insurance product. Therefore, it presents an interesting statistical exercise.

If we factor in that the iPhone has become more durable with advancements in glass technology and improved water resistance, along with one’s personal history of rarely losing (due to Find My) or having phones stolen (as an able-bodied adult male), the probability of needing AppleCare+ could indeed decrease. Let’s analyze how these factors would affect the likelihood of damage or claims.

Impact of Stronger Glass and Water Resistance:

1. Stronger Glass:

• Recent iPhones, like the iPhone 16 Pro Max, feature Ceramic Shield and other advancements that make the screens more resistant to cracking and breaking.

• While glass improvements have reduced the risk of cracks, drops are still a major source of damage, especially for larger phones. However, assuming newer technology reduces screen damage rates by 20-30%, we might lower the cracked screen risk to about 20-25% over two years (from the original 30%).

2. Water Resistance:

• iPhones are now IP68 water-resistant, meaning they can withstand submersion in up to 6 meters of water for 30 minutes.

• This improvement significantly reduces the likelihood of water damage from spills, drops in water, or exposure to moisture. Previously, 10% of users experienced water damage, but this might now be reduced to 2-5% in modern iPhones.

Low Probability of Loss or Theft:

• If you have a personal history of rarely losing phones or having them stolen, you might lower your personal probability of loss/theft to 1-2% over 2 years, compared to the general 5-7% risk.

Revised Overall Probability:

1. Cracked Screen: 20-25%

2. Other Accidental Damage (e.g., drops, back glass, frame damage): 10-15%

3. Water Damage: 2-5%

4. Loss or Theft: 1-2%

If you sum these up:

• Total Probability of Damage or Loss in 2 Years: 33-47%

With the improved durability of the iPhone and your low risk of loss/theft, the overall probability of experiencing damage that would require AppleCare+ drops to roughly 33-47% over two years.

If you believe the likelihood of damage or loss is on the lower end (closer to 33%), you might consider not purchasing AppleCare+, since the chances of needing it are reduced.

Ultimately, it depends on how confident you are in your ability to avoid damage. If you’re cautious and historically have not damaged or lost your phones, skipping AppleCare+ might make sense financially.