Christmas Rally: And No, It Won’t Be in Your Niche hehe
We just came off one of the worst Novembers on record, yet U.S. equities — specifically the S&P 500 via ES futures — are sitting roughly 100 points below all-time highs, which is only ~1.7% off the peak. That alone tells you something very specific about global capital flows: despite the macro noise, U.S. equities remain the world’s dominant risk anchor.
Crypto stalled below its expected blow-off targets
European indices underperformed
China continued its structural drawdown
Commodities failed to break their summer highs
EM flows were muted or flat
Most major international assets failed to hit their projected year-end milestones, yet the U.S. benchmark index is within less than two percent of breaking to new highs, setting up a structurally engineered Christmas rally.
This is not random — it’s structural.
Because the leadership concentration has tightened in NVDA–META–MSFT, the market has become:
more selective
more AI-centric
more dependent on cloud + GPU + AI ad-stack monetization
This is why the S&P can be only a few percent from ATHs even after one of the worst Novembers — the index is being held up by the strongest 3-tech-stock leadership cycle we’ve seen in 15 years.
The November decline removed the weak links.
December → January will reward the strong ones.
This is why the Christmas rally is not only possible —
it is structurally supported.