Conflict of Interest Rates 1/1
In the realm of content or social media, actionable precision is often misunderstood relative to talking heads or advice from your favorite guru. After all, what is greater than something that is accessible, now made affordable and scalable, while providing a projection with statistical significance in bite size format?
Conflict of Interest Rates
As compelling as business advice may be, it pales in comparison to the over 60,000% returns in the market in the last century, which implies a 600% return per annum with a significantly lower probability.
This advice might utilize ‘woke’ forms of academic analysis, such as Case Shiller studies on P/E ratios, to heighten public concerns about the high valuation levels in markets that have transitioned from one bull market to another over time, without factoring in present earnings and interest rates or their directional trends. It has been observed that interest rates can introduce a variability of up to +22% to P/E ratios.
While, there have been shifts in leadership among ‘overvalued stocks,’ each succeeding the other, contributing to the cumulative +60,000% gains. The ‘stock pickers’ benefit by positioning in undervalued stocks that have yet to catch up with the broader market’s performance, thereby riding the tide of rising markets which they frown upon?
Yet, how do outperformers perform and how do underperformers perform? This is why we keep making all time highs.
The Brave
There are those who will sway you and frown on volatility or condensed time, otherwise known as the short term or swings, but everyone tells you that risk is reward. If one trains oneself to manage volatility in all endeavors, what does that say?
It is a form of alchemy that must be stopped at all cost.
Consider this..
You have academics, financial institutions, and government officials who have entirely swayed you towards instilling fear of markets, promoting resistance to markets, and advocating for staying out or adopting a passive approach in markets to support the apparatus.
Example: One of my friends runs DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) programs for Wall Street with the sole purpose of ‘creating jobs’. However, these jobs often entail entry-level roles that are heavily focused on the sell-side, involving the sale of financial products and instruments. When he proposed empowering the youth in Harlem to develop quantifiable edges in the market through his nonprofit, there was no interest shown in the initiative. If you promote savings and deposits into ‘Big Banks’, it’s all about the message.
The Message
By promoting the acceptance of the randomness or long-term nature of markets, individuals are often influenced to align with the interests of the establishment. If one opts to stay out or adopts a passive approach, institutions and ETFs that are mandated to fully invest in weighted constituent indices get bigger and play a significant role in driving the market. This can exacerbate valuations as capital continues to flow into stocks that are perceived as winners.
Then the mainstream media (MSM) comes in, helping you cope with valuations, much like they do with the latest events in politics.
The irony is that ‘woke’ individuals in positions of power, who often criticize the features of American exceptionalism in capitalism, are directly or indirectly increasing their exposure to the markets. A prime example is Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio.
If Nancy is exploiting you as a pawn in her game, what should you do?
Became a dog.
For All the Dogs, not Kitty’s
Remember, the pursuit of observing and capturing All-Time Highs (ATH) is relevant for all traders and investors.
After all, the keyword is ‘all time,’ implying throughout all time frames.
If so, did one have exposure as the market made new ‘all time’ highs?
Irrespective of the strategy, because everything was a cross current in that of moment in time.
That is all that matters.
Let’s see if the courageous who have held will benefit from a intraday market range expansion that could establish a more significant all-time high, potentially exceeding +20 points from the open.
On July 4th, I postulated that an edge in trading can be found by participating in markets when high-frequency traders (HFTs), the vigorish, and news catalysts are not driving the market. At these times, the market is slower and behaves more ‘neutral,’ which may accentuate what people perceive to be randomness. On the contrary, with the correct overlay, it is highly probabilistic.
You must empower yourself as the market is creating larger gridlocks and vigorish entrapments on you and your mind.
In other words, Nancy wants to keep you out of NVDA 0.00%↑ as she buys more.
Think about it,