Conviction Beats Convenience
In a world addicted to data and “flexibility,” we often celebrate those who pivot — those who “evolve” their thinking with each new headline, dataset, or poll. But what if that very behavior is a signal of something far less admirable? What if constantly changing your mind isn’t intellectual adaptability — but a sign that you never had conviction in the first place?
Let’s break it down.
Intelligence Isn’t Just Processing — It’s Positioning
You can be smart. But how you use that intelligence matters more than whether you have it. It’s not just about absorbing information — it’s about knowing where to stand when the facts are still forming. That’s where true thinkers separate from high-IQ parrots.
Look at political discourse. People often stereotype Republicans as "hicks" or Trump as "dumb." But if you pause, you have to ask: is there a deeper strategy — one that’s misread by people who assume intelligence only comes in academic packaging?
The Litmus Test of Real Conviction
We often hear: “I changed my mind because new data came in.” But that’s not the full story. The real test is this: could you form your stance before the data was in?
Because if you only land on the right side after the trend is clear, you weren’t thinking — you were waiting. You were afraid to be wrong when it counted.
In trading, politics, or life — the ones who generate edge develop frameworks from incomplete data, act with confidence, and are proven right as the world catches up.
That’s the mark of someone with skin in the game.
The Problem with “Changing Your Mind”
Too many people glorify indecision masked as growth. They call it "maturing" or "learning." But if your original stance was truly well-formed, why did you abandon it ? If your idea was rooted in deep conviction, shouldn’t it have endured the first few waves of doubt?
Changing your mind may seem rational, but it's often a form of self-protection — a hedge against the emotional cost of being early or unpopular.
Why This Matters
When someone takes a stand — like backing tariffs early, when the world mocked the idea — and then time proves them right, that’s more than luck.
That’s vision.
That’s real intelligence: not waiting for the win rate to be obvious, but seeing the trajectory when others can't.
So when someone says, “I changed my mind,” ask them why they had to.
Because the ones worth listening to? They don't need perfect data to make strong calls. They argue, they defend, and they refine — but they rarely reverse course just because public opinion shifts.
Conclusion: Be Wary of the Mind-Changers
Respect people with backbone. People who stay with their ideas — not because they’re stubborn, but because they believed before it was safe to. Those are the people who win.
The ones who saw it first, not followed it last.