Do not OPEN
Do we ever miss?
Tonight, when Kyrie Irving goes to the free throw line, will he make them?
He makes them 90.5% of the time; he rarely misses.
In fact, it’s a running joke when he misses them in ‘clutch moments’. Near the close of the game, his team will tease him for surprisingly missing the free throws.
Tonight in Boston for the NBA Finals, once Kyrie gets fouled, to the dismay of all the fans booing, we can predict what will happen.
He will make 90.5% of those free throws simply because of his hand-eye coordination and his biological slow-twitch fibers.
The fundamentals of his game and biology = 90.5% FT in the sample of games played.
Why he makes them at such a high percentage of free throws is very important to all professionals and enthusiasts of the game.
The Game
Yet, you can have those with identical sets of circumstances but achieve a very different free throw percentage, which demonstrates the ad hoc nature of fundamental investing.
Hence, most statistics supporting fundamentals will justify themselves with smoothed averages over longer durations.
Therefore, if one trains hard and studies the fundamentals of free throwing, they may individually improve.
Yet, they are no Kyrie.
In fact, Kyrie’s game is also attributed to natural raw talent, and some might say he may be the most talented player ever.
In fact, there is only one NBA player who has a career free throw percentage of 90% or above: Stephen Curry, with 90.98%.
Stephen’s shooting is still different from Kyrie’s.
Yet, for the moment, they are both above 90%.
Therefore, focus on the +90% free throw shooting.
One can marvel at the wizardry of Kyrie’s skills and fundamentals, which equate to the underlying statistics and scores he produces.
Let this be a way to understand stocks and commodities.
Day Trading
I’m the only one who day trades in the manner I do. For one, I don’t use charts, and I don’t use or need real-time data.
My data can have even a 15-minute delay, and that still works for me.
I don’t need a Bloomberg terminal or even a PC, as seen in the sample series of high win-rate calls.
With a sound methodology, I have the confidence to write title that I do.
This might explain why my book is now selling for almost $5,000 and is used by some funds from a trading and execution perspective.
Because I know what the ‘FT%’ is of the market when certain events happen, it is that understanding of the rules of the game that equates to the outcome.
This is why I often say the open is the close. There is a sense of determinism based on the circumstances.
Like a basketball foul equals a few points on the scoreboard.
Some professional day traders are looking for deltas in bids and asks, which is interesting, but there is still the necessity of understanding the statistics and probabilities of market delta characteristics that should equate to why they are buying or selling.
They might say to those curious that there are ‘more buyers than sellers.’ But according to what period, and if so, what is the significance of it? If it is significant, then when does it also equate to a probability that impacts price 90% of the time?
The permutations of lifting bids can be intuitively seen, no doubt, but quite rarely will you see identical circumstances leading to variability in the desired outcome.
Focus on the true signal from the noise, and then enjoy the artistry of why after.
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