Dodging Bullets in a Dirty Game
One of the strangest things about operating close to markets — really close — is how often you find yourself brushing past situations that later turn out to be radioactive.
Not because you’re clever.
Not because you’re lucky.
But because you instinctively avoid entanglement.
Over the years, I’ve had repeated moments where someone reached out from what looked like the highest tier of the industry — big funds, serious reputations, polished narratives.
The conversations always started clean: discipline, patience, value, long-term thinking. The kind of language that signals virtue.
But if you listened carefully, the seams always showed.
At some point, the discussion would drift.
From value… to “special situations.”
From fundamentals… to event-driven timing.
From patience… to proximity.
What fascinated me was the inconsistency.
Publicly: value investing, restraint, principles.
Privately: fascination with catalysts, access, edges that had nothing to do with valuation.
And whenever the conversation moved toward execution — real-time interaction with markets, no drawdown tolerance, authorship under constraint — the discussion snapped back to “value.”
Almost defensively.