“First Principles” as Virtue Signal

Real first-principles thinking doesn’t begin with intelligence, models, or theory. It begins with consequence.

In markets, the irreducible fact is simple: incorrect positioning is destroyed.

Not argued with.

Not narrated away.

Destroyed.

Time, scale, reputation, and sophistication do not exempt you from this.

Everything else—diversification, hedging, regimes, narratives—is derivative.

Useful, sometimes.

But not fundamental.

True first principles asks: what survives when protection is removed?

What remains is execution under constraint.

Exposure.

Timing.

Falsifiability.

That’s why genuine first-principles thinking feels stark.

It offers no comfort, no authority, no appeal to consensus.

It doesn’t sound clever.

It sounds final.

And that’s why so few people actually operate there.

They keep the language.

They abandon the consequence.