Funds will Attempt to Shape the War Narrative into the Close
As we move into the close, expect funds to become more active in trying to assert control over the tape—particularly relative to dealers and algorithmic flows.
The objective here is less about pure price discovery and more about shaping perception: pushing the market to close green helps reinforce the narrative that recent developments, including Trump’s press conference, are being received constructively and that conditions remain stable.
This type of behavior isn’t new: it mirrors what we saw during the Sunday futures open following the initial strike, and again on Monday where early intervention attempted to stabilize sentiment before broader consequences began to surface.
As the situation has evolved and unintended consequences have expanded, dealers and algos have increasingly dominated the flow, overwhelming the ability of funds to maintain control.
What we’re likely seeing into this close, and potentially extending into Tuesday, is a renewed attempt to reassert that original narrative.
But this creates a growing disconnect: while price may be supported in the short term, the underlying structural pressures remain unresolved.
If escalation continues and those second-order effects become more visible, the same pattern should re-emerge: support giving way to a fade once the narrative can no longer suppress reality, unless a credible resolution materializes.