He who controls the burst in the S&P 500 controls the entire session.
In a rising long-rate regime, participants cannot passively hold ES the same way.
They must:
rebalance quickly
hedge quickly
cover quickly
deploy quickly
That means liquidity shows up in short, violent windows, not as background flow.
Why bursts dominate over trend-following
In low-rate regimes:
trend persistence is rewarded
time in trade = edge
In higher long-rate regimes:
time becomes a cost
certainty is rewarded
optionality decays faster
Authorship capitalizes on:
variance collapses
synchronized reactions
continuation reflex
That’s exactly what higher long-dated rates create.
Rising long-dated yields don’t kill ES opportunity — they purify it.
They remove lazy continuation, punish indecision, and force the market to resolve in short, authoritative bursts.
That’s why:
bursts matter more
authorship is clearer
and timing beats prediction