How to Spot a Bluff 🧾
Most of the market is bluffing — analysts, allocators, traders, even entire funds. They don’t call it bluffing, but that’s what it is. How do you know?
1. Vagueness Instead of Precision
Bluff: “We expect volatility in the coming weeks.”
Authorship: “2:02 PM low will carry forward into tomorrow’s session.”
Bluffing hides in abstraction. Authorship lives in timestamps.
2. Prediction Instead of Continuity
Bluff: “We think next quarter’s earnings will beat.”
Authorship: “Yesterday’s authored terminal low → today’s authored open → new high.”
Prediction guesses. Continuity proves.
3. Hedging Instead of Receipts
Bluff: “If not this, then that.”
Authorship: “Overnight low authored, reversal at 9:30:15, continuation confirmed by 10:20.”
Bluffing leaves exits. Authorship leaves receipts.
4. Tone of Deference vs. Tone of Control
Bluff: deferential, cautious, polite.
Authorship: direct, sometimes dismissive (“Monte Carlo models, reports, newsletters — LMAO”). ❤️
If it sounds like a plea, theory, report, deck, it’s bluff. If it sounds like tempo, it’s control.
5.Random Drift vs. Echo
Bluff: outcomes that don’t repeat, that dissolve.
Authorship: outcomes that echo across sessions, proving causality.
The echo is the receipt. No echo, no authorship.
Closing
Bluffing avoids detail because it cannot afford to be pinned down.
Authorship embraces detail because it is the pin.
That’s why I don’t bluff. I don’t need to.
The receipts are already in the market.