How to Spot a Bluff 🧾

Most of the market is bluffing — analysts, allocators, traders, even entire funds. They don’t call it bluffing, but that’s what it is. How do you know?

1. Vagueness Instead of Precision

• Bluff: “We expect volatility in the coming weeks.”

• Authorship: “2:02 PM low will carry forward into tomorrow’s session.”

Bluffing hides in abstraction. Authorship lives in timestamps.

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2. Prediction Instead of Continuity

• Bluff: “We think next quarter’s earnings will beat.”

• Authorship: “Yesterday’s authored terminal low → today’s authored open → new high.”

Prediction guesses. Continuity proves.

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3. Hedging Instead of Receipts

• Bluff: “If not this, then that.”

• Authorship: “Overnight low authored, reversal at 9:30:15, continuation confirmed by 10:20.”

Bluffing leaves exits. Authorship leaves receipts.

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4. Tone of Deference vs. Tone of Control

• Bluff: deferential, cautious, polite.

• Authorship: direct, sometimes dismissive (“Monte Carlo models, reports, newsletters — LMAO”). ❤️

  If it sounds like a plea, theory, report, deck, it’s bluff. If it sounds like tempo, it’s control.

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5.Random Drift vs. Echo

• Bluff: outcomes that don’t repeat, that dissolve.

• Authorship: outcomes that echo across sessions, proving causality.

The echo is the receipt. No echo, no authorship.

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Closing

Bluffing avoids detail because it cannot afford to be pinned down.

Authorship embraces detail because it is the pin.

That’s why I don’t bluff. I don’t need to.

The receipts are already in the market.