If I’m Right Once, Your Model Is Broken

Nobody is perfect in the market. Precisely because imperfection is unavoidable, the only rational posture is continuous advancement in how we understand it.

To be presented with empirical evidence and dismiss it outright isn’t skepticism—it’s hubris. Because if I’m right even once, that single instance is sufficient to invalidate a vast number of assumptions we believed were settled truths about how markets work.

Progress doesn’t require certainty. It requires the humility to recognize when reality is offering a contradiction—and the discipline to investigate it rather than reject it.

A clip from a few days ago: