I’m leveraging off the market’s deleveraging
As carry de-risks across the system, the dollar becomes the natural risk-on expression of that unwind — not because it’s speculative, but because it sits at the center of settlement.
When the field is forced to reduce risk, their exits become my synthetic leverage.
Distance from all-time highs isn’t just descriptive.
Distance from all-time highs functions as a proxy for residual balance-sheet damage. Following a carry unwind, assets far from their peaks face a longer recovery path, requiring fresh capital and renewed risk tolerance. The fact that ES remains comparatively close to its highs, while many other macro assets do not, underscores where capital is still being prioritized — and where it is not.
After deleveraging:
assets far from ATHs require time, capital, and renewed risk appetite to recover
assets near ATHs are signaling structural sponsorship or preferred capital treatment