Influencers & Talking Heads
They get on their platforms and rant about all these “once-in-a-generation” trends — then rattle off a dozen names and “opportunities,” with the usual disclaimers layered in: diversify, hedge, manage risk, don’t size too big.
A few weeks later, by sheer timing, one of those assets pops.
Suddenly their eyes light up: “I told you so.”
And everyone forgets the part where they sprayed exposure across a list so long it’s impossible to falsify.
The hedges and caveats get buried under word count.
It wasn’t a call.
It was a scatterplot that happened to print.
In stark contrast, there’s the other approach:
One or two instruments.
A clear directional position.
No hedge to dilute it.
Defined risk.
Resolved in minutes.
No basket.
No scattershot list of “themes.”
No insulation through diversification so wide it becomes unfalsifiable.
Just:
Here.
Now.
Long or short.
This is wrong if it does X.
It resolved.