INSIDE Today, OUTSIDE Tomorrow
Today
Today, the market will be blah, which happens only 10% of the time.
Within the summer, “blah” also creates opportunities because that implies 90% of ‘blahness’ will happen today.
This suggests a high probability within the neutral nature of the market.
High probability is confidence, like making lemonade from lemons.
Say what you may about my Blah indicator but it can give you confidence as opposed to that the Fed is using.
Yesterday, Powell said “We don’t have high confidence in forecasts.”
From a central planner.
Yikes.
Yesterday
We so nailed it - yesterday.
Let me give you an example of gambling.
Suppose there’s a decision and guidance on interest rates in about 30 minutes.
Who could predict what might happen?
Do you know?
Yes, you might have a hunch, but would that imply putting huge sums of money into that idea?
No.
What I write about is understanding human nature and how people bid the market up to the peak, allowing the decision to unfold and the market to sort itself out.
I’m saying is that when there’s an interesting pivot point, the market tends to peak, ensuring that if the new information is valuable, it will drive the market in a new direction.
Otherwise, it reverts back.
All of this was done raw too.
Explained rationally.
Tomorrow
I like the fact people perceive the technocratic stock market to be risky.
That ensures information arbs exist.
That in itself is life fuel.
“A good way to measure an ‘abstract’ artist is whether he can do the original thing. Picasso could do representational art, he chose not to.”
“The artists doing all this **** now could not sit down and do a highly detailed drawing of tangled tree branches like Van Gogh did. And the fact that they can’t do that means everything else they do has no value or significance.”
Forever,