Interesting Times! One-Year Bear Market
Well, folks—gold and the rest of the world, like clockwork, have signaled the bear market. These assets are always the late bloomers and will inevitably get dragged down later in the year. So, not only did you have ninth-inning momentum, but you also had the shortest window of leadership before everything comes crashing down alongside U.S. equities, as the dollar continues to ascend—even with dovish monetary policy in 2026.
POTUS should aim to lock in all forms of war before the next midterm in November 2026. That suggests we should start seeing U.S. equities gain momentum sometime early next year, with a combination of fiscal measures (next year) and monetary easing gradually (this year) catching up to the economy throughout the rest of 2025.
Purge Them
Personally, I’m excited to witness the eradication of this speculative bubble. Too much “dumb money” has an opinion, backed by their little models. Too many Coinbase accounts, meme coin rug pulls, and small-cap value and Magnificent 7 investors acting snarky. It would be nice to tune out all that noise.
As an empiricist, I advocate for empiricism—meaning I’m not bound by faith, dogma, or the contradiction of being an empiricist who doesn’t believe in empiricism. This allows me to remain pragmatic.
Empirical Scale
Many investors set price targets for assets like Bitcoin, much like Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized the concept of “black swan” events. However, Taleb’s own hedge fund, Empirica Capital, struggled partly because black swan events—by definition—are rare, making consistent profitability difficult.
His strategy, which emphasized tail-risk hedging ( think long or short) to protect against market extremes, often came at the cost of missing out on gains during stable periods. Critics argue that simpler investment approaches—such as diversification, market neutrality, and traditional risk management—often outperform complex models for ‘tail end’ detection when navigating markets.
Survivor
It’s interesting that Buffett has a lot of cash and oil. With no positive drift this year, it’s hard to benefit from the survivors in his portfolio.