Inversion Trading: 92% on FOMC Day’s
Anyone working in capital markets should be passionate about the game and open-minded enough to seek any edge that can decode and demystify it.
The world will continue to see and understand why what we discuss is the analytical apex.
The moat is robust - a boat that can go with and against the current. It can be both an investment and a trade. It can be both backtested, forward tested and simulated.
At its apex it does things beyond our wildest imagination.
Anyone who scoffs is either dogmatically adhering to their own school of thought or lacking comprehension, as there is no better form of analytics.
Luck?
Psychic - 6 sense?
Astrology *smirk*
Check your mail box.
Search ‘Inversion Investor’.
How is that luck?
Was this luck too?
Ask the right questions to come up with insights.
1. For your active fund manager:
• What percentage of fund managers outperform the compounded returns of the S&P 500?
• If you were critical of the dot-com bubble, meme stocks and the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, how did you adjust your portfolio to compensate for this exclusion?
2. For your wealth advisor:
• How many stocks in the S&P 500 have a high correlation with the index itself?
• How many stocks in the S&P 500 have a beta of 1 or fall within one standard deviation of 1?
• Can you explain the difference between beta and correlation?
3. For your active fund manager:
• How do you scale weightings in your portfolio, and how do you avoid attributing performance solely to survivorship bias?
• How do you justify your approach to weightings compared to indexing, especially when money flows might influence weightings in a more arbitrary manner?
4. For your fund manager:
• What is the win rate of your portfolio on a share-for-share basis?
What is your success probability specifically? Both long and short.
Why does your approach work exclusively on just one asset class?
Why is your approach for buy and sell signals not STEM?
In over 20 years of observing capital markets, I have never encountered anything that analyzes, segments, and scales as effectively as what is being presented here.
Today I will unveil a 92% trade that works on FOMC day’s…
Trading on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) days can be highly volatile due to the significant market impact of FOMC announcements and the subsequent press conferences.
A 92% win rate on FOMC days suggests a robust trading strategy.
Even with a lot of know variables the market’s overall behavior is still different from most days.
Key Considerations:
1. Market Anticipation: Leading up to the FOMC announcement, markets often exhibit low volatility and a narrow trading range as traders await the decision.
2. Announcement Reaction: Once the announcement is made, expect a sudden surge in volatility. Prices can move sharply in either direction based on the content of the announcement.
3. Press Conference: The Fed Chair’s press conference can further impact the markets as traders react to insights and future policy indications.
Trading on FOMC days requires a blend of strategy, quick reflexes, and robust risk management.