Iran's Missile Math: How Long Can They Keep This Up?
Look, Iran’s not out of ammo—yet; but the clock’s ticking fast after this weekend’s chaos. Let’s run the numbers:
Pre-strikes stockpile (end of Feb 2026): Around 3000 ballistic missiles total—mostly medium-range like Shahab, Ghadr, Fateh.
That’s pre-June 2025 war baseline, minus what got burned then (over five hundred fired), plus sneaky rebuilds. IDF pegged it higher before the big US-Israel hit, but production was accelerating—dozens a month, maybe twenty to fifty if they pushed.
What they’ve used this weekend (Feb 28–March 1): Roughly 170 to 200 ballistic missiles so far—twenty waves at Israel alone, plus dozens scattered at Gulf bases. Add drones (hundreds), but we’re talking real ballistics here.
That’s 10% gone in forty-eight hours.
Not a blitz, but steady burn.
What’s left right now: IDF’s latest—about 2500.
Production reality: Even underground, they’re scraping—maybe 10-20 a month max now.
Sites bombed, supply chains jammed. If they squeeze every shift? Call it fifteen weekly short-term.
But US/Israel keep hitting factories?
That drops to near zero.
If they keep regional strikes rolling—like hitting Israel daily, plus Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Oman, even Saudi edges—at 15-20missiles a day?
Short term (next week): Burn two 250, add maybe twenty back → stocks dip to 2250 by March 8th.
Two weeks out: Another 250 gone, production lagging → under 2000 by March fifteen.
Three weeks (mid-March): At this pace, down to 1500 or less—then it’s proxies, drones, or bluffing.