July 4 Was the Pivot

What appeared to be a low-probability even - the resumption of the war, with July 4 serving as the pivotal turning point has now come to fruition.

Most prediction markets would have told you this outcome was unlikely.

But a little wisdom, foresight, and strategic judgment kept our analysis from being clouded by the prevailing narrative.

Over the past several weeks, we watched peace talks progress and key disagreements appear to be ironed out. Yet we remained vigilant because the underlying conflict was never truly resolved.

Our view was that a durable resolution could only be imposed through military force.

And if Iran was somehow coerced into delaying a rapid military response, then that was a strategic blunder on its part—one that has now become increasingly clear.