Letter to a Colleague

What’s changed for me is more about the broader environment we’re operating in.

Everything has become heavily probabilistic almost to an extreme - the matrix itself?

It feels like we’re living inside a kind of “model-first” world, where everyone is trying to predict everything: markets, economies, behavior, even societal outcomes.

With the rise of algorithms and AI, that tendency has only accelerated.

But what I’ve come to appreciate: partly through thinking about our past discussions is the role of authorship.

Not in a literal sense, but in terms of intent - to cast a spell/spelling is the authorship of intent.

It seems to me that intent sits upstream of probability. Models and probabilities don’t drive outcomes as much as they try to describe them after the fact.

Intent, on the other hand, is what actually directs flow—and in many ways, can override or break probabilistic expectations entirely.

So while the world leans further into modeling,

I’ve been thinking more about that layer beneath it—the one that shapes outcomes and the geometry of markets before they ever become measurable.

Anyway, just wanted to share that perspective. Would be great to catch up more at some point.

All the best,