LOD in 5s and HOD on the exact second ≈ 1 in 109 million - 284/317

Calling the direction is one thing. Calling the window is another.

Most market commentary is unfalsifiable.

It’s written after the move, padded with caveats, and insulated by ambiguity.

That’s why “being right” is cheap.

What isn’t cheap is pre-commitment — especially at the level of seconds.

This morning I published a call before the open that the market would drop for the first few seconds, then rise. The timestamp is there. The tape is there. And the low printed inside that tiny window.

So what are the odds of that happening by luck?

The Naïve Baseline (Random Second)

Regular trading hours contain about 23,400 seconds.

A 5-second window is:

5 / 23,400 ≈ 0.021% — roughly 1 in 4,680.

That’s the “flat random” probability: any second of the session could have been the low.