MOONFALL! is Back
Lunar New Year 2026 starts Tuesday, February 17 (Eastern Time), aligning with my annual notes of pre-holiday pressure on Friday (today, Feb 12) through Monday.
"Moonfall" concept that refers to a seasonal market decline observed right before Lunar New Year, particularly impacting markets, with recent posts like "MOONFALL 3.0: Killers of the Flower Moon" noting China down sharply.
This year the focus of Moonfall is on coins, metals and markets.
Roughly 10-20% of global Bitcoin ownership (by number of holders) and up to 5-10% of circulating supply may be linked to Lunar New Year-oriented countries (primarily China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, etc.), driven by high crypto adoption in Asia despite China’s bans.