Opportunism vs. Authorship: Eric Adam's and Game Theory
Every model in finance rests on the same foundation: probability.
Charts, fundamentals, quant code — all assume that markets are stochastic, uncertain, random in structure but knowable in distribution.
That assumption has been the invisible rulebook for decades.
It is the same logic behind game theory, poker odds, and chess clocks.
And it is the same logic behind politics.
The Opportunist: Eric Adams
Take Eric Adams.
He has played both sides of the political spectrum:
A Republican in the 1990s to protest Democratic crime policies.
Later a Democrat, elected to state senate, borough president, and eventually New York City Mayor.
Today, running as an Independent, trying to build a coalition of Republicans, Democrats, and moderates.
He adapts to voter blocs.
He shifts language.
He recalibrates according to mood.
This is opportunism inside a probabilistic field.
It’s about maximizing chances, hedging bets, and playing within the existing payoff structure.
Nothing about it changes the rules of politics — it only navigates them.
The Author: One Second That Ends the Game
But what happens if someone doesn’t just adapt, but authors?
In poker, if a card is intentionally removed, every calculation collapses.
In chess, if the clock is sped up by even a second, the arbiter must halt the game.
In markets, if one tick of variance can be collapsed on command, the entire probabilistic framework disorients.
It looks trivial.
It isn’t.
Because the one edge is repeatable.
If it can be done again and again, the entire payoff structure changes.
This is not opportunism.
This is authorship.
From Randomness to Causality
Probability distributes uncertainty.
Causality concentrates certainty.
Once a deterministic act enters a probabilistic field:
The equilibrium breaks.
All strategies downstream lose validity.
Rational players must either pivot or align around the deterministic actor or abandon the game.
This isn’t theory.
It’s how every game works.
One loaded die, one peeked card, one clock change — and the whole game ends.
Encroachment → Entrenchment → Totality
Here is the continuum:
Probability: the old regime, randomness as default.
Encroachment: the first authored ticks intrude into the field.
Entrenchment: repetition forces systemic memory, recursion, anticipation.
Totality: the game is no longer probabilistic. It runs on authored causality.
Opportunism vs. Authorship
Eric Adams switching sides is opportunism.
It’s survival by adaptation. It relies on probability.
Authorship is different.
One authored tick is not adaptation.
It’s causation.
It doesn’t seek better odds — it creates outcomes that everyone else must adapt to.
The conclusion is simple:
Opportunism bends to the environment.
Authorship bends the environment itself.
Eric Adams can change parties a dozen times and still be trapped inside the probabilistic field.
But one authored second in the market collapses variance, forces recursion, and rewrites the rules.
Opportunism is consequence.
Authorship is causality.
And once causality proves itself, there is no room left for probability.