Ұ$ - PAID (Juneteenth Remix Edition)

Psst, I’ve got a trade for you.

It’s pretty hilarious, which makes me even more confident about it.

Inversions are all around us, so I’m up to some fun and profitable shenanigans.

Let’s cook!

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By the close of tomorrow (Tuesday), the market will go down (perhaps the last bar at 4pm) to clear the books for Juneteenth (Wednesday).

Before the close of tomorrow, long the dollar and/or short the yen.

The dollar going into the holiday in the United States is a good carry trade, undeterred by light economic news and data from both the US and Japan.

Crude is bouncing back from the ‘end of petrodollar narrative,’ adding pressure on the yen.

In the small sample size of the two instances in history when Wall Street was closed for Juneteenth, we can observe the following:

• On Friday, June 16, 2023, SPY 0.00%↑ decreased by approximately 1%, while the Dollar rose by 0.3%. Due to the market closure on Monday, both the index and the Dollar saw further gains post-June 20.

• On Friday, June 17, 2022, SPY 0.00%↑ experienced a minor gain relative to its open and close. The Dollar increased by approximately +0.7%, and both continued to rise post-June 21.

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I’m still long and was even long today for the intraday high.

Cumulative P/L (green) with fees on the iPhone over the last 4 days.

However, it is objective to be in the dollar when the market is on holiday.

Embrace idea generation.