Prediction Markets Got It Wrong—Again: Iran Strikes as the Ultimate Inversion

Polymarket had this at 14% Thursday night. By Friday afternoon—after Trump grumbled about talks failing—it crept to twenty-ish.

Still low.

Still “maybe, but not today.”

The crowd was wrong.

Iran didn’t just get hit; they got hit hard.

Explosions over Tehran, missiles toward Israel, US carriers already in position.

Not a surprise to anyone paying attention…