RE: Weekend Positioning
What’s becoming increasingly clear is that one of the only consistently effective methods for reducing some of the deficits is demonstrating tangible progress—such as finalizing trade ‘letters’. The administration should have recognized that there’s little value in delays, especially given the complexity of these agreements. The best approach is to secure what you can early on, thereby creating the incentive and momentum for the more complex components to be worked out over time.
It is absolutely fair to say that the past 90 days have been extremely controversial within the MAGA base—particularly regarding the evolving dynamic with Elon Musk. Musk’s pivot toward forming an “American Party,” with Tucker Carlson as his likely presidential candidate, could have been largely avoided had the administration prioritized trade deficit reduction.
Had higher tariffs been enacted earlier, the initial market shock might have been more severe, but it would also have eased geopolitical tensions. That window could have produced even stronger surplus prints—enough to, at least narratively, neutralize concerns surrounding the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill).
In fact, it would have been the tax reductions and stimulus that catalyzed the market recovery—not the pauses that made “TACO” rhetoric so popular.
If that focus had come earlier and at a larger scale—prior to the issuance of the BBB—it would have weakened Musk’s argument about debts and deficits, especially when viewed against his speculative positioning in DOGE.
I say this not as a protectionist or an isolationist, but as a balanced trade-ist. You can clearly hear a shift in rhetoric—now zeroing in on the deficit disparities with trading partners—often wrapped in the “bro science” being casually tossed around.
We are taking a position for the weekend.
This position is more spec in nature, but one can suspect some letters regarding the EU and also activity in the Ukraine war.
Therefore we should short the futures close for Sunday open
People are only just beginning to understand the power of tariffs, largely because our society is so Americacentric that we fail to grasp how the other side operates. As a result, we instinctively label tariffs as “anti–free market,” even as the administration simultaneously pushes for other markets to open up.