Rule: Absolutes for small numbers. Percentages for big numbers.
Every year, you’ll hear about some small economy or tiny small-cap corner posting “+40% growth” or “+80% gains,” and it’s one of the easiest rabbit holes to get lost in.
Big percentages on small bases can be wildly misleading — they often say more about the starting point than the durability of the opportunity.
I remember doing research suggesting that, across rolling five-year windows, the S&P 500 has often outperformed a broad mix of major asset classes — including emerging markets, small caps, gold, real estate, and bonds.