SIGNIFICANT: Not Pretty
So a lawyer colleague of mine said this: “The thing is, if it’s math and probability, how come my good chess friend (an actuary) who’s a stats genius tried going solo full-time on ASX for 1.5 years and got his ass handed to him?”
My reply: “It’s what you choose to look at. It’s not about how smart you think you are. Remember the rabbit hole someone can go down.”
What is the rabbit hole?
I will share more on that in my report soon.
After I said this..
“There was this lady in Chicago 20 years ago. A housewife, not high IQ. She had someone give her a good system, and I was like, WTF.”
She would place a trade on her trade station, proceed with her chores, and say lines like, “Another day, another dollar.”
She even made it clear that she could not share the trade secret with anyone.
I was in love - with the secret.
The pursuit of the holy grail led to a lifelong journey through the full exploration of everything.
The pursuit of the ‘holy grail’ generated more self-discovery that led to the realization that there must be a universal theory of investing and trading—a revelation that blindsides those not looking at it, pushing the mind to understand first principles.
The ending of Indiana Jones is a great metaphor for what the holy grail represents: drinking from the cup of the most famous spiritual leader in history, whose story was ultimately canceled.
But what is the cup?
Some days are a grind, with modest moves, but we are in interesting times with consecutive days up.
What's fascinating is that, despite this, the statistics remained robust despite being nimble.
Statistically significant enough to email everyone with courageous title:
Remember, ‘public’ markets are 100% probabilistic.
The stock market apparatus, with all its variables, may be deterministic.
However, the variables, which are interchangeable over time in terms of significance, can never fully explain the ‘price’ or the 100% root cause of Mr Market with full causality.
Something can come out of nowhere. Although, you don’t want to be caught speculating on the VIX.
It is because of this that the entire finance news cycle and industry exist.
A professor, businessman, or investment banker can often resent the market because they feel they have no control.
Yet, their retirement still has exposure to something they may have no control over.
Why?
Because you have been told, ‘Trust the experts.’
Where have you heard that line before?
Remember, markets are 100% probabilistic.
This is why you are told, “Past performance does not guarantee future results.”