Spec: They Know the Distribution
They know is the distribution — the range of likely outcomes built from thousands of real-time inputs: rents, energy prices, shipping costs, credit spreads, FX behavior.
By 1:00 A.M. Eastern, the biggest desks in the world have already modeled the probabilities.
It’s conviction — the statistical kind.
They’re not buying because they know CPI will be soft.
T…
