Spec: They Know the Distribution

They know is the distribution — the range of likely outcomes built from thousands of real-time inputs: rents, energy prices, shipping costs, credit spreads, FX behavior.

By 1:00 A.M. Eastern, the biggest desks in the world have already modeled the probabilities.

It’s conviction — the statistical kind.

They’re not buying because they know CPI will be soft.

They’re buying because their cross-market reads and hedging requirements all lean toward a higher-probability upside or neutral reaction.

They’re risk-positioning.

Context, this that leaves maybe 60–65 % probability that the first reaction skews higher.

Also, POTUS is Truthing away about the market.