Tehran 4:17am

If Putin is preoccupied with a tit-for-tat conflict with Ukraine via NATO, it may signal that he is currently unable to act as a mediator with Iran. This perceived vacuum may help explain the elevated urgency behind recent U.S. personnel evacuations in the Middle East.

These evacuations are taking place amid warnings that Israel is "fully prepared" to launch an offensive against Iran—and that U.S. military bases in the region could be targeted in retaliation.

Israel has historically preferred to conduct airstrikes during nighttime hours, especially just before dawn, to maximize the element of surprise and reduce risk to its forces. The most likely window for such an attack would fall in the pre-dawn hours—around 4:17 to 4:47 AM local Tehran time, which corresponds to approximately 7:47 to 8:17 PM Eastern Time (ET) the evening prior.

Given the confluence of current military, diplomatic, and intelligence signals, there is a realistic likelihood that such a strike—if greenlit—could occur in a few days.

This could be adding pressure to the market as seen in the afternoon.