The Causal Stack of Markets

Prediction explains markets.

Execution interacts with markets.

Authorship changes markets.

Authorship = Variance Collapse (Causal Layer)

Price as a function of time-bound execution, not expectation.

Authorship is defined by:

• specific timestamps

• specific price levels

• immediate acceptance or rejection

• no drawdown tolerance

This is not forecasting the future.

This is participating at the point where the future resolves.

Authorship is not directional bias.

It is state transition control.

From:

• compression → expansion

• imbalance → resolution

• variance → structure

Passive explains returns.

Active explains stories.

Authorship explains sequence.

Only one of these operates upstream of the benchmark.

When:

• a call exists before the move

• price resolves into that exact shape

• and the exit is logged after resolution

the benchmark is no longer causal.

It is responsive.