The Divestment of Consequence
One of the byproducts of rising government debt is the sheer frequency of government shutdowns. That creates two immediate consequences: fewer economic data inputs, and a direct tie to the ongoing debasement of currencies.
This forces a few things.
It forces managers to outperform the benchmark, because there’s less data to lean on. It forces ideas of concentration — but not just concentration of assets, rather a concentration of variance.
-At the same time, we could be entering a era of less company-specific economic data is coming through.
-While , markets get accustomed to White House statements, so that variable begins to matter less.
-The Fed becomes a periodic actor, often doing little of consequence in the short term.
What you’re left with is a market that seeks resolution — because there is no other guidance.
And that is model-breaking.
You see it all the time: traders staring at the lows of the day or the highs of the day. But no model explains those moments.
Everything lags.
Only cognition is faster than prediction.
That’s why highs and lows of the day are often marked by minimal volume.
Take 617 — a critical point, yet established on almost no volume for days.
The significance wasn’t technical. It was authored.
And this all makes sense because you can see it on every level: no one wants to take responsibility for things of consequence.
The government bickers endlessly about why the debt is the way it is — that’s a divestment of consequence. Market commentators tout how prices move without ever claiming cause — that’s telling people to simply bear the variance. And analysts explaining moves only after the fact?
That is also consequence-avoidance, and it corrodes portfolios in real time.
Technicals, fundamentals, and quants all live in the realm of prediction and probability.
But authorship lives in the realm of consequence — and pre-cognition.