The Most Fundamental Signals Emerge Only in Illiquidity -An 'Emerging Market'
When an asset is illiquid, you can say anything — the market doesn’t push back.
Sharp observation on data degradation when capital controls distort transmission. The 70% drop in S&P sensitivity to China PMI makes sense when global capital can’t freely arbitrage the signal. It’s basically the opposite of efficient market theory, the information exists but the plumbing to price it doesn’t
Why Most Big Economies Don’t Move the World
Over the last decade, average S&P 500 futures movement around:
Illiquidity hides truth in noise.
Liquidity reveals it — not smoothly, but violently, in seconds that decide everything.
And in that tiny gap between correlation and collapse lies the greatest inefficiency ever discovered: the one hiding inside efficiency itself.
Next Level: Liquidity as the New Alpha
I’m sitting in the same bookstore café in Toronto where I once saw my own book on the shelf - here we go: