The Only Thing Overvalued Is Your Prediction Methodology

People cite about crisis and doom, or claim the market is overvalued. But the only real crisis is one of cognition — and the only thing truly overvalued are their methods.

The hubris is in believing your cognition can treat the structure as though it were probabilistic, as if guesswork could ever match up against determinism.

Causality always dominates exposure, because causality defines what exposure even means.

Knowing the limits of their own cognition, they fear-monger — turning their limitations into a story of scarcity through multiple venues.