The Uncharming Offensive: Pick a Side
I have a lot of experience dealing with foreigners who are enchanted by the “orient”—often simply because they lack experience or wisdom. Unfortunately, that illusion is eventually proven wrong. This is why they lose wars: they cannot grasp the depths of inhumanity of those they are dealing with.
Which I think is a good thing—but isn’t that what gated communities are for?
Now, however, the stakes are extremely high.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s is expected to visit to Vietnam from April 14 to 15, 2025, to cover the following key topics:
Economic and Trade Cooperation:
Strengthening trade ties, as China remains Vietnam’s largest trading partner and Vietnam is China’s largest trading partner within ASEAN. Discussions may focus on expanding bilateral trade and investment, particularly in infrastructure and digital transformation projects.
Potential collaboration on railway development to improve connectivity between northern Vietnam and China.
Bilateral Relations and Strategic Partnership:
Reinforcing the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership framework established in 2008, with an emphasis on deepening political trust and cross-sector cooperation.
Promoting the “China-Vietnam Community with a Shared Future” initiative, aimed at enhancing solidarity, mutual benefit, and long-term collaboration.
Regional and Global Issues:
Addressing peace and stability in East Asia, including the South China Sea disputes.
Exploring multilateral coordination amidst shifting global dynamics, such as U.S. trade tariffs affecting both countries.
People-to-People Exchanges:
Expanding cultural and local-level collaborations between provinces and cities to build stronger ties beyond government-level engagements.
These discussions are designed to solidify Vietnam–China relations while navigating the region’s strategic complexities.
Crucially, this timing sends a strong signal—and not a good one for Washington. Xi’s visit comes precisely when the U.S. is attempting to secure or expand its own trade agreements with Vietnam.
The optics here are sharp: while U.S.–Vietnam talks are still bogged down by bureaucratic wrangling and cultural misreadings, Beijing is executing high-level diplomacy face-to-face. The message is clear—China is moving in to fill any vacuum left by the U.S. delay or indecision.
Symbolically, it says a lot. If Vietnam were interested in really addressing the needs and concerns of the United States, it would close off all trade talks until something was solved in Washington first.
Now when you look at what’s happening in Washington, in which Vietnam doesn’t even send its head of state - although its head of state will meet with China?
The proposed reciprocal trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is still in the negotiation phase, with the following key points discussed:
Tariff Reductions Vietnam has proposed reducing tariffs on US goods to 0% and requested the US to reciprocate by eliminating tariffs on Vietnamese exports.
-Non-Tariff Barriers: Both nations aim to minimize non-tariff barriers to facilitate smoother trade and investment.
-Trade Imbalance: Vietnam has committed to addressing the trade imbalance by increasing imports of US goods and enhancing market access for American businesses.
- Investment and Business Environment: The agreement seeks to encourage US investment in Vietnam and create a favorable business environment for companies from both countries.
- Trade Fraud Prevention: Both sides agreed to strengthen cooperation in combating trade fraud and ensuring fair trade practices[1][4].
You can see that the issues here are ambiguous about imbalance and even presumptuous to increase FDI in Vietnam? Which doesn’t even have the ability to fill a China void.
All just a big waste of time relative to the 46%.
This is why the administration expects Japan to the first to have a deal.