The Voice of a Generation
We can’t help to feel like we are being played.
The push for President Biden’s re-election bid persisted until the historically early first debate, aimed at maintaining the incumbent advantage. Historically, incumbents have a significant win rate.
However, Biden’s faltering performance, highlighted by declining approval ratings following the debate, shifted the narrative. With Biden’s campaign facing significant challenges, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the Democratic nominee, running against former President Donald Trump.
Incumbent Presidents Running for Reelection
Historically, 21 out of 31 incumbent U.S. presidents who sought reelection have won, giving a success rate of approximately 67.7%. This reflects the advantages of incumbency, including increased visibility and established political networks. Typically, incumbents with approval ratings of 50% or higher have a strong edge, though Biden’s slipping ratings highlighted the difficulties he faced.
Vice Presidents Transitioning to the Presidency
Historically, 15 vice presidents have ascended to the presidency, either through election or succession. Of the 49 U.S. vice presidents, 19 have run for the presidency, with 6 succeeding. This gives vice presidents a success rate of 31.6%, notably lower than the 67.7% success rate of incumbent presidents.
New Nominees for President
New nominees from major parties who have never held the vice presidency but have significant political experience or public appeal often have a strong chance of winning. Recent successful new nominees include Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Ronald Reagan. It’s estimated that new nominees have a competitive success rate of approximately 50%.
Head-to-Head Scenario: Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Former President Donald Trump
In the current scenario where Vice President Kamala Harris is running against former President Donald Trump, the historical data provides insight into their chances:
• Kamala Harris (Vice President): With a historical success rate of 31.6% for vice presidents transitioning to the presidency, Harris faces significant challenges. Her candidacy represents a notable shift from the incumbent’s advantage to a new, yet less established position.
• Donald Trump (Former President): Former presidents attempting a comeback have a success rate of approximately 16.7%, with Grover Cleveland being the only successful example. Trump’s chances would be influenced by his prior tenure and the current political climate.
Head-to-Head Probability Estimates
Using historical success rates:
• Kamala Harris: Approximately 31.6% chance of winning.
• Donald Trump: Approximately 16.7% chance of winning.
In this matchup, Kamala Harris holds a more favorable position compared to Trump based on historical success rates. However, Trump’s previous presidency and strong political base make the race competitive. Statistical estimates give Harris a probable edge with about a 61.3% chance of winning against Trump, reflecting her more favorable position compared to a former president’s typical comeback odds.
Implications
Harris, as a new nominee stepping into the role from the vice presidency, has a higher probability of success than Trump based on historical data, but the dynamics of the current political environment will play a crucial role. Trump’s prior presidency and ongoing influence could impact the election outcome, making it a closely contested race.
I wouldn’t bet on it - but that’s the data.
Lost Generation
It might come as a surprise that the eroding middle class around the world is dramatically poorer compared to that of the United States, even in England, part of the Commonwealth. When you consider how leftist politics has developed globally, it becomes clear that there need to be outlets for men. I’ve heard that some of the biggest right-wing trolls are emerging from places like Canada, and you might recall the trucker protests a few years ago, which were inspired by events in Australia. This is why I believe various subcultures in the UK are so revealing.
Much of influential British music leans either right-wing or anarchist revolutionary, resonating with a generation of disenfranchised men. For example, in England, there are now 895,000 NEETs, an acronym for “not in education, employment, or training.” Their songs, anthems of freedom and liberation, paired with a loyal and fervent fanbase, make them nearly untouchable. In the US, artists like Kanye West have also tapped into the disenfranchised, even engaging with the hooligans of Inter Milan Ultras.
These authentic subcultures exist at the intersection of football, lad culture, and rave music, often depicted in films like Snatch and Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels. These films also feature scenes from mob life and combat sports, which have become popular with figures like UFC’s Dana White and Joe Rogan and the WWE EDR 0.00%↑ .
It was British rock stars like Ian Brown of the Stone Roses who famously protested the lockdowns, alongside figures like Tommy Robinson. This scene has now become synonymous with cigarettes, alcohol, and cheap pints.
One of the calls I’ve been wrong about so far is MTCH 0.00%↑ . I hypothesized that while the disenfranchised have opted out, minorities would use their higher incomes in the West to invest in services like MTCH 0.00%↑ to even the playing field.
This is game that is still being played.
They are everywhere.