The War: A Consistent Thesis

With strikes reportedly slated for tonight and a lingering possibility of a last-minute “TACO” outcome, one thing remains clear: oil prices remain subdued largely because markets continue to price in the prospect of renewed peace talks.

With asset prices now generally above where they stood at the outset of the conflict, and both sides having had time to moderately replenish their capabilities, the underlying strategic picture appears largely unchanged.

It therefore seems increasingly likely that missile exchanges will resume—if not immediately, then in the near future.

From Iran’s perspective, it is understandable why missile strikes would continue to be viewed as a primary military option, given that the conflict was escalated into direct state-on-state attacks by the US and Israel.

I have consistently priced in this possibility and even suggested that July 4 would have been a strategically superior date for Iran to act. Waiting until after July 4 is weaker timing as POTUS appears more willing to engage.

Good timing matters.