The world doesn’t need more guesses. It needs resolution.

When I say “Rise” and author a bottom in the world’s largest predictive market, you should feel a sense of relief — I just collapsed uncertainty for a moment in time.

Prediction is always late. By the time a model reacts, the world has already moved. That lag produces distortion, false confidence, and—inevitably—unintended consequences.

• In markets: Predic…