Trade 2: Mission Accomplished (Fantastic Four Trades Friday)

We achieved Trade 2.

Now we look at the probability of at least 3 out of 4 trades succeeding: (Already achieved with Trades 1 and 2, so probability is 100%)

Probability of exactly 3 out of 4 trades succeeding: (0.90 * 0.07) + (0.10 * 0.93) = 0.156 or 15.60%. Meaning getting 4/4 is almost 85%.

With an expected ROI for today of 2.80%

Total Expected Points: 50.22 + 5.77 + 0.10 = 56.09 points

Assuming each point is worth $50: Expected Dollar Gain: 56.09 * $50 = $2,804.50

If we assume an account size of $100,000: Expected ROI = ($2,804.50 / $100,000) * 100 = 2.80%

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Updated Trade 3 (Win Rate 90%)

Time Frame: 1:30 PM - 3:30 PM EST

Setup Conditions…