Trump Officially Ousted
Trump has been removed.
The inmates are running the asylum.
Deals with China are made without him.
Ukraine strikes are made without intelligence briefings.
Meme coins are launched by his children.
Presidential pardons and safe passage are handed to Baron’s favorite influencers.
The list goes on and on.
For quite some time, I have stated that the playbook is to blame Trump for war to remove him or now to remove him if he chooses not to participate. That could still be at play based on the events over the weekend.
Over the weekend, Zelensky suggested that the U.S.—and by extension, NATO—could become involved in the war. This is particularly notable given the possibility that Ukraine may no longer receive U.S. funding at the same level as before which I mentioned over the weekend:
If Zelensky can’t secure funding in the way he’s accustomed to, he has a strong incentive to undermine any potential deals with Trump. However, he can’t simply sit idle. His only other option is to entangle NATO in the conflict, which would either help him secure the support he needs or create a pathway to removing Trump from office—something much of the global establishment wants to see.
The Strategic Dilemma
The Role of NATO in U.S. Politics
In late 2023, as part of the National Defense Authorization Act, Congress passed legislation preventing any president from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from NATO. Sponsored by Senators Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Marco Rubio (R-FL)—the current Secretary of State—the measure requires either an act of Congress or approval from two-thirds of the Senate for such a withdrawal.
If Trump were to push for leaving NATO, it would be a major strategic victory for Vladimir Putin and peace, as it would weaken the alliance. However, if the U.S. remains in NATO and is drawn into a conflict—such as through the triggering of Article 5 in response to aggression—Trump could find himself politically vulnerable. If he refuses to honor NATO commitments, it could open a path to impeachment or removal from office.
Meanwhile, Putin is playing with ‘house’ money.
1. If Trump actively participates as Commander-in-Chief, his relationship with Putin might help ensure that the conflict does not escalate to a nuclear level especially since China will assert itself. Notably, China has the largest trade surplus with the United States. Meanwhile, North Korea is already participating.
2. However, if Trump refuses to engage, NATO is weakened. Yet, this scenario could be used to remove him and accelerate the status quo.
3. If a peace deal is reached, Russia is likely to secure some of the territorial gains it has made in Ukraine.
Ultimately, the geopolitical stakes are high, with both sides maneuvering to shape the future of NATO, Ukraine, and the broader global order.
Wartime Spending
This puts the U.S. in the stance of a wartime economy, which will ultimately benefit Elon Musk.
There’s no efficiency during wartime, FYI, but there is certainly growth and stimulus.
Elon will likely usher in all the futuristic technology we’ve dreamed about.
But does technology become centralized as a tool for future governments?
It’s reminiscent of how we once got excited about the internet, only for it to be co-opted by big tech.
Perhaps.
