Vote to Short $DJT
I want to be clear—this is completely apolitical.
Briefly, I believe wisdom is evidenced by being right in the long term. Therefore, anyone who voted for or supported someone on the decline lacked foresight in their decision-making process. Who would vote for someone clearly incapable of doing the job they are about to enter in 2020?
Don’t Sleep On It
Some people cope by showing videos from 2020 versus 2024. The term of the job is four years—similar to a long-term investment. One can also say they were led on by narratives.
My reply? We should never be prisoners of the moment, and that applies to Trump Media and Technology Group Corp, which is having quite a moment. Everyone is mentioning to me that Bitcoin and DJT were up significantly yesterday.
My reply: if your investment or trade thesis is waiting for the assassination of a president or former president, you’d be waiting 43 years. The sheer mental exercise of an assassination attempt leading to a stock shift has no replicable scale.
You know the proverb:
Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime
It’s so mind-numbing because we’ve heard it a zillion times, right?
Well, I suspect this line came out before even the earliest signs of refrigeration, which are documented as early as 1748. This means that those taught to fish need to be able to fish multiple times a week—scaling under varying conditions but still yielding good results.
Scaling good results is what I am all about, but this has been entirely buried by the industry through the allure of both technical and fundamental analysis. Technicals lack scalability as a pseudoscience, and fundamentals are completely ad hoc.
In fact, many will apply technicals with curve fitting and no durable scale, which is the number one cause of such high failure rates in day trading. If the house always wins, notice that the house gives you those tools too? It’s similar to how one can get as much booze as they please at a casino, eventually losing to the house.
Now, we all love the margins and economy of scale of selling iPhones, right? The issue is that many cannot create that scale or economy of scale in their portfolio - besides fees.
Why?
Because iPhones have an industrial manufacturing procedure down to a science that equates to the profitability ratios shown in their balance sheet. One can try, but the precision is very intricate and would pale in comparison to the procedure of getting a Big Mac. Imagine if every analysis could deliver Big Mac-level outcomes. This is why future AI with potential reasoning and scaling of PHD level research is so disruptive of the realm of the ad hoc.
Additionally, if adjusted for weight, a portfolio may indicate more discrepancy in scale (survivorship bias), merely benefiting from the market’s +60,000% gain but often unable to capture it fully. Such gains are often made by stocks touted to charge the hysteria of the day that so many seasoned professionals frown upon.
Which is why people are left astray.
I saw on X, formerly known as the Twitterverse, a pure pump-and-dump narrative of “if you want to support Trump, buy his stock today.” This has taken stupidity to new heights.
One can also suspect the management team at DJT played up to this meme. As I was getting email updates from Truth Social.
The fact that you’re getting the recommendation from X, rather than from Truth Social, shows that Truth Social is only for the ‘die-hard’ NPCs and reflects its fundamentals, indicating it has not yet garnered critical mass.
Yet, critical mass drove up the stock yesterday.
More buyers than sellers right?
Below are dates in which DJT 0.00%↑ has had big volume.
2023-07-21: 31,180,000 shares
2024-01-22: 29,654,400 shares
2024-01-23: 25,945,700 shares
2024-03-26: 55,523,500 shares
2024-03-27: 32,590,500 shares
2024-06-28: 29,139,800 shares
2024-07-15: 76,156,456 shares
What is the implication of more buyers than sellers post events like IPOs or high-profile news such as assassination attempts making headlines?
Event 1: 2023-07-21
Event day close: $20.08
5-day price action:
$17.63 (-12.2%)
$16.34 (-18.6%)
$16.66 (-17.0%)
$16.48 (-17.9%)
$16.57 (-17.5%)
Pattern: Sharp retracement on day 1, followed by stabilization around 17-18% below the event day close.
Events 2 & 3: 2024-01-22 to 2024-01-23
Event days close: $50.75 (Jan 23)
5-day price action:
$38.15 (-24.8%)
$34.91 (-31.2%)
$38.18 (-24.8%)
$36.21 (-28.7%)
$37.80 (-25.5%)
Pattern: Significant retracement on day 1, continued decline on day 2, then fluctuation between 25-31% below the event day close.
Events 4 & 5: 2024-03-26 to 2024-03-27
Event days close: $66.22 (Mar 27)
5-day price action:
$61.96 (-6.4%)
$48.66 (-26.5%)
$51.60 (-22.1%)
$48.81 (-26.3%)
$46.15 (-30.3%)
Pattern: Moderate retracement on day 1, sharp decline on day 2, then continued downward trend.
Event 6: 2024-06-28
Event day close: $32.75
5-day price action:
$33.08 (+1.0%)
$31.73 (-3.1%)
$31.10 (-5.0%)
$29.17 (-10.9%)
$30.32 (-7.4%)
One can observe that the notion of more buyers than sellers lacks scalability for this stock five days out.
This is not to imply that big volume indicates more buyers or that small volume signifies anything specific. One can simply infer causality to understand the potential up to 50% impact on the probabilistic market for the last trading session was due to retail buying.
Which, in itself, lacks scalability five days out - post RNC convention?