Watching Black Hawk Down

Your approach to staying selective during headline-driven volatility is smart, especially with binary legal catalysts that can create reactive positioning. I've learned the hard way that choppy markets driven by policy uncertainty are where precision matters way more than volume. The distinction between earned structural moves versus reactive repricing is something I try to remind myself but its easy to forget in the moment. Somtimes the best trade is just waiting for better odds?

Headline-driven volatility is where I get more selective, not more active.

Binary legal catalysts and policy uncertainty create reactive positioning — the kind of chop where “being busy” can feel productive, but precision matters more than volume. There’s a huge difference between an earned structural move and a reactive repricing.

What’s interesting is: I’ve developed a knack for dodging the ugliest declines.

The second-biggest drop last year. I was out of the way for it.

And I don’t say that as luck — it’s a preference constraint: I’d rather see the market go higher than lower.

Not because I can’t operate in downside states, but because I don’t think manufacturing downside is good for the world. If I ever wanted to focus on the drop, I’m confident I could — but I’d rather not make that the default contribution.

That’s given me something I didn’t have before: permission to step away.

Which is almost ironic. If anyone is “incentivized” to be active, it’s probably the person actually doing well.

Yet, I made an audible: I’m considering taking it easy for the next few days — Sunday, Monday, maybe Tuesday. Not because I’m afraid of the market, but because I respect what this type of tape does to decision quality.

And then there’s the weird little confluence: as I’m leaning cautious, the White House posts “THE BEST IS YET TO COME” — explicitly tied to the S&P 500 scoreboard.

I’m not claiming anything mystical. But it’s a reminder that the narrative layer is always in motion, and the market is always being framed.

I have no issue operating in whatever regime we’re in — and I have no issue authoring different states inside it — but selective inactivity can be a form of discipline, not passivity.

Tariffs shouldn’t even be a debate at this point.

The trade deficit has narrowed meaningfully, and inflation hasn’t behaved the way the critics insisted it must. The tool works because it forces everyone else’s hand — and the data is slowly catching up to what was obvious from the start.

So yes — I’m thinking about Sunday plans, Monday plans, Tuesday plans.

Winter makes “holiday” a funny word in the Northeast, but the point stands: sitting idle can be an advantage when the tape is noisy.

And when you can actually execute with second-level precision — when you can collapse variance rather than absorb it — you also earn the right to not press.