Why I’m in Dollars Going Into the Weekend
Iran at the Bottom of the System, the USD at the Center — and Why That Matters if Things Escalate.
This weekend carries non-trivial geopolitical risk. Speculation that by Sunday evening the conflict involving Iran could escalate into direct military action.
Whether that happens or not is unknowable.
What is knowable is how the global financial system behaves when stress arrives.
And that behavior still runs through one place.
The U.S. dollar.
What Happens If Tensions Escalate This Weekend?
If military action occurs — or even if markets believe it might — history suggests a familiar sequence:
Risk assets wobble
Local currencies weaken
Capital seeks settlement certainty
Dollar liquidity tightens
USD demand rises — directly or synthetically
This doesn’t require a belief that the dollar is “strong forever.”
It only requires recognition that nothing else clears at scale under stress.
Gold may rise.
Crypto may trade violently.
Narratives will multiply.
But invoices, margin calls, energy flows, and emergency hedges still resolve in dollars.
This week’s The Economist Mike Bird explains how capital moves.
In contrast, I argue explain what capital cannot escape.
If Bird were fully right, then:
Gold, RMB, crypto, or equities would replace USD in moments of strain
But what actually happens?
Everything funnels back to dollars
Even “dollar-negative” hedging requires dollar markets
Even equity exits settle in USD first
That’s not preference.
That’s architecture.
That’s why my dollar bull case isn’t consensus.
And that’s exactly why it’s high caliber.
Why I’m in Dollars Going Into the Weekend
This isn’t a moral stance.
It isn’t a geopolitical prediction.
It’s a plumbing decision.
When uncertainty rises, the asset that matters most is not the one with the best story — it’s the one with the best settlement properties.
Bottom Line
The dollar’s power is not about confidence — it’s about connectivity
Sanctions don’t weaken the dollar; they demonstrate how indispensable it is
Iran is not a counterexample to USD dominance — it’s proof of it
Going into a weekend with elevated geopolitical risk, I prefer to be positioned in the currency that sits at the center of global settlement, not at the edges of speculation.
That currency is still the U.S. dollar.