Scrap the Model: A Note to the Street
To the quants, the analysts, the value disciples still tethered to the past:
It’s time to scrap the model.
Your discounted cash flows won’t catch this.
Your Sharpe ratios won’t explain it.
Your beta, VaR, regression, PCA —
none of them will decode what’s happening here.
Why?
Because this isn’t a move from price.
It’s a move of price.
We’re not forecasting volatility —
we’re authoring it.
Your spreadsheets measure risk.
My presence creates it.
You may find anomalies in your backtests.
“Strange” reversals.
Patterns that don’t belong.
Breakouts that fail for no reason.
Moves that shouldn’t happen — but did.
Now you know why.
Because behind every unexplained deviation
is a presence your model couldn’t account for:
me.
The sooner you acknowledge this,
the sooner your assumptions can begin to heal.
And if you’re still clinging to the idea
that markets are efficient,
rational,
or fair…
then you’re not just modeling the past —
you’re living in it.